⚡️ Tesla Space #30: Elon dancing again

DEEP DIVE

Overview of the Tesla Shareholder Meeting

First off, here are some resources to dig in yourself:

• LIvestream link to the 2h26min meeting, Musk walks on stage at 42:30.

• Pdf of all 33 slides shown on the meeting by Musk.

The slides start with some good self-awareness here:

Below is my summary of everything we learned at the meeting, Musk’s Q&A, and on his hints on X before and after.

Tesla will pay the man

A lot of Tesla executive and employee Elon-praising posts, some real Tesla ads, and a shareholder-initiated rally for everybody to vote later…

…Elon Musk’s $56B pay package was approved (or rather, re-approved) by 72% of shareholders. That’s nearly the same as 73% in 2018. Tesla’s largest shareholder with $39B worth of Tesla stock, Vanguard, said it voted for the pay package this time, even though it voted against in 2018.

Texas reincorporation was approved by 63%. You can find votes for all proposals in this SEC filing. Greg Abbott, Governor of Texas, said “Welcome to a state that has neither a personal nor a corporate income tax.”

Tesla didn’t wait around to get out of Delaware either — and right on the same day of the shareholder meeting wrote in the press release it has already “submitted all filings to effectuate its conversion into a Texas corporation and can confirm that the Company is now incorporated in Texas.”

Kimbal Musk was also re-elected to the Tesla Board of Directors for another 3-year term.

Personal note: the way Tesla retail shareholders came together is nothing short of amazing. All of this was well enabled by Alexandra Merz’s (@TeslaBoomerMama on X) great work in making sure everyone could vote.

Tesla retail shareholders hold ~45% of $TSLA, worth about $255B.

Tesla shareholders were signing the “Don’t mess with Tesla Retail Shareholders” banner that Alexandra had made and put up in the lobby.

Here’s the updated Tesla ecosystem map including AI:

On new models: Musk says “we got some new products we're working on. They're going to be pretty special. Just wait, they will be."

On Cybertruck: Musk also says Tesla will end the Cybertruck Foundation Series production soon, and start producing the regular versions next quarter. It should start at <$80k and thus be eligible for the $7,500 tax credit in the US too.

Tesla plans to ramp up the CT production to 2,500 units/week by the end of the year. So far, Tesla hit a weekly Cybertruck production record of 1,300. Musk also confirms that China and Europe-compliant Cybertruck coming after production is scaled and costs are reduced.

On FSD: Musk said Tesla will allow free FSD transfers for one more quarter. He also said two free weeks of FSD will be given to all Tesla owners whenever a major FSD update hits. He has said before that 12.4 and 12.5 subversions are actually essentially massive updates.

He also said Tesla is “headed towards Unsupervised FSD”, and they expect a 2-5x increase in performance between versions. For some internal builds, they’ve reached 10,000 miles between interventions.  

Musk said Tesla is not compute-limited for FSD, but scenario-limited. Musk expects a total of $5-10T (that’s a Trillion) valuation for autonomy and $20T for Optimus bot.

Tesla’s Hardware 5 (HW5) will come out at the end of 2025 (between 5 to 18 months from retail release). Musk says Tesla is calling it “AI 5” and it’s 10x better than HW4, and up to 50x better in terms of inference power alone. HW 4, which is currently just emulating HW 3, will start training later this year.

Tesla plans to introduce LLMs with customizable learning personalities its vehicles and Optimus.

On Robotaxi: Fleet monetization planning is ongoing, and owners can send their Teslas to the Robotaxi fleet, and then summon them back when they need them. Most of the income will go to owners, with Tesla taking a set margin.

On Tesla Semi: Elon said that he approved the plans for volume production of the Tesla Semi “last week” (for 2025) and bulk of ramp will happen in 2026.

On Optimus:  

Optimus is already an actual contributor to factory tasks (video of it doing tasks), and at least two have been autonomously performing tasks in the factory. Tesla expects 1,000-2,000 robots working in its factories by next year, with a limited production run. There will be one major hardware revision coming this year.

Elonsays Optimus can also used for teaching, companionship, babysitting, etc, and expects 2 humanoid robots per person in the future. He talked about a target of $10k-$20k price for custmers.

On Tesla Energy: Megapack version 3 is a couple of years away. This chart on the deck shows Tesla is tracking for a 200-300% YoY growth to 40 GWh of energy storage deployment this year. And what I love seeing even more, is the generated record gross profits from Tesla Energy in 2023. Tesla says they are constrained by Megapack and Powerwall 3 production and can’t keep up with the demand.

On Supercharging: something we already knew, but Musk says “Rumors of the death of Tesla Superchargers are greatly exaggerated.” I wonder if we’ll ever get the chance to learn the actual backstory of the whole-team layoffs. Tesla now has 58k global sites and growing. Musk says Tesla will deploy more superchargers this year than the rest of the industry combined.

Sustainability: Tesla drivers avoided releasing over 20M metric Tons of CO₂ to the atmosphere., Water usage per vehicle is own almost 25% since 2018 to 2.48 m³, well below the industry average of 3.37 m³. 100% of Giga Berlin electricity usage is matched with renewables.

Tesla statistics confirm that after 200k miles (322k km), Model 3 & Y retain 85% of their original capacity on average (and looks like the standard deviation is between 80% and 90% by that time.

See more on Tesla sustainability in their recently-released Impact Report 2023.

Meanwhile, some shareholders visiting the event saw the showcased Model Y with Front & Rear Gigacasting. Casting these means 370 fewer parts, and a 10% weight reduction, per our friend and gigacasting expert, Luca. This casting is currently used in the Model Y’s produced in Berlin, with the BYD battery pack.

If you’re a shareholder:

Tesla shareholders, mainly Amy Steffens (@_SFTahoe), have taken upon themselves to get Tesla rid of the ridiculous $6B fee that the lawyers demand on the Tornetta v Musk et al. case (aka the same case that made Tesla recreate Elon’s pay package vote).

Until tomorrow you can participate in the Tesla Retail Shareholder Letter that will be sent to the court, to support the objection (brought forward by Amy) to limit the plaintiff’s attorney fees. Fill in the survey here, available until Wednesday.

THE COMPANY

Tesla Model 3 about to get hit with tariffs in Europe

European Union is hitting Tesla with 21% import tariffs for made-in-China electric vehicles. Other automakers get between 17.4% (BYD) and 38.1% (SAIC). Read more on my deep dive into the tariffs. However, Tesla might be able to get lower tariffs soon enough:

The “definitive stage” here means the third phase of this investigation and tariffs, which will take place between 6th September and Definitive Measures will apply, after a vote, on 2nd November 2024.

Tesla doesn’t have a problem with Model Y, which is produced in Giga Berlin… but the made-in-Shanghai Tesla Model 3 that it imports to Europe will be subject to these tariffs.

I wonder if Tesla
→ raises M3 price accordingly (21% at first)?
→ plans for Giga Berlin M3 production?

Meanwhile, Turkey also hit Chinese EVs with its own 40% tariff and seems likely Tesla has the same problem there.

Tesla has started hiring again in nearly every category from manufacturing to services to software — after removing nearly all listings in April (the layoff rounds).

Musk posted today that he is working on Tesla Master Plan 4. “It will be epic,” he says.

THE VEHICLES

The best way to start this section out is going over the CyberCab update with us on the video above. Can’t wait for the CyberCab unveiling on 8/8!

S3XY

Tesla raised the lease starting prices to Model Y trims in the SU by up to 12.5%:

• LR RWD $399 → $449/mo

• LR AWD: $429 → $479/mo

• Performance: $509 → $559/mo

Also, the Tesla Model 3 LR AWD now qualifies for the IRA tax credit.

Tesla Shop: air mattress for Model Y is now back in stock for US, for $225.

The Model Y is not getting the refresh this year. Although… we also saw Model 3 hit China and Europe first and then the US just by the year’s change. Might they do the same this year?

Tesla gives complimentary 15k miles of free Supercharging for buyers in the UK and several other European countries until July 1st.

What range anxiety?

This Tesla Model S 90D from Chesterfield, UK has done 430,000 miles since 2016, used as a premium airport taxi over the years. It still runs on the original battery and electric motors. Here’s a 13-minute video from AutoTrader.

There is another… this Model S P90D that has done 1.2 million miles since 2014, but by now runs on the 4th battery and 13^th electric motor. Here’s a 24-minute video from Watt Energy on the story.

Speaking of long trips, just a few days ago Rob finished his ‘winter tour’ across Australia ina Model Y, taking a 21-day, 7,200-mile (11,604-km) trip. He tracked it all on polarsteps here, including 560 photos.

CYBERTRUCK

Cybertruck patrol cars start popping up. In the US, we find Unplugged Tesla new arm called Up Fit, which has created this badass police Cybertruck about to be deployed. It even made it to the news in NY video).

One of the CT perks: this Cybertruck was sideswiped at speed by a Mustang… and saw no damages under the wrap:

Fun watch: when Cybertruck is updating, the steering wheel becomes loose as there is no mechanical connection to the wheels.

SOFTWARE

2024.20 software update

• Headlights now adapt for curves in the road also in US, CA, MX, PR, and KR.

• Vehicles with matrix headlights now do that and also illuminate more when driving on a highway.

• Beach Buggy Racing now offers Supercharger-specific leaderboards.

• When set to Auto, the AC now cools down the cabin faster & your vehicle better regulates the HV Battery temperature. On all M3/Y and new MS/X.

• AC in Cybertruck has been made quieter.

• Atari games have been removed from the 3/Y with AMD Ryzen processors.

• New Model X’s that came without ultrasonic sensors can now again get self-presenting doors (aka self-opening when you come near the car).

Here are the release notes.

@greentheonly finds “Voyage” from decompiling the 2024.20.1 changes, seemingly a new trip planner — he assumes Tesla is rewriting the trip planner from scratch. The system also now tracks “typical fleet Wh per Mile”. Along with a lot more metrics tracked, Tesla will also start showing a new range projection specifically if towing something.

Also, Karaoke app will soon come with a “Recording Studio” to allow you to record your singing and apply various special effects to it.

Tesla will bring a new ‘Avoid Highways’ feature to its in-car navigation — Musk said “all-right, sure” to it on the livestream when gaming last week.

What I’m excited for: Jordan from the Limiting Factor just got a 4680 cell gifted by the Munro Live team, and he sent it to Dr Ying Shirley Meng’s lab (a battery tech superstar).

FSD in China: Tesla gets approval for testing 10 Tesla vehicles with FSD from Shanghai. (link)

THE MUSK CO

The Boring Company’s Prufrock-3 has emerged inside Giga Texas. I love the explainers put together by our video team, click on the image above to check it out.

This chart shows Elon Musk’s involvement in companies he (co-)founded over time. Put together by Roland Pircher.

Elon on Tesla making a phone: “We could, but hopefully it isn’t needed. Tesla is one of the few companies that has its own tech stack (not iOS, Android or forked Android).”

SpaceX: Ellie in Space 12-minute interview with Elon, discussing Starship’s 4^th launch and the future. PS — if all goes well, we’ll see another Starship launch as soon as this month.

Starlink dish prices are cut by 50%, to $299 as “regional savings” for new users in 28 US states.

Meanwhile, Starlink celebrates a huge milestone: now available in 100 countries worldwide! 🥳 See the timelapse video on the link there.